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金融危机“吹哨人”预警：AI泡沫还有不到一年就会破裂！_我的网站

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    An aerial view of Ningbo Petrochemical Economic and Technological Development Zone in East China's Zhejiang Province on August 19, 2026 Photo: Courtesy of Hu Xuejun
As night falls along China's East China Sea coast, rows of sprawling industrial facilities glow brightly under the dark sky. At Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. (NZRCC) in East China's Zhejiang Province, a network of oil pipelines, towering distillation towers and neatly arranged oil storage tanks forms a futuristic "steel forest" outlined by lights and shadows.
On Chinese social media, this striking tableau has been embraced by younger generations as the essence of "cyberpunk-style hardcore romance." Amateur photographers and influencers have compiled detailed guides to the best viewing spots, complete with walking routes, camera angles, and even the optimal time to capture the scene, the so-called "blue hour," the period just before sunset.
Dozens of kilometers away, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port presents another stunning industrial scene. At this super port, which has ranked first globally in cargo throughput for 17 consecutive years, massive cargo ships anchor on the blue sea, stacked colorful shipping containers stretch along the shore, and giant quay cranes line up neatly. The dynamic interplay of mechanical operation lights and natural mountain and sea scenery creates a harmonious industrial beauty.
For years, heavy chemical plants and port infrastructure were associated in the public mind with noise, pollution, and a kind of forbidding remoteness - places to be avoided. Today, however, these industrial sites have transcended their purely functional roles, emerging as vivid windows through which ordinary people can observe China's new quality productive forces, and as a new narrative of coexistence between industry, ecology, and tourism.
    An aerial view of the industrial facilities of Sinopec Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. on August 19, 2026 Photo: Courtesy of Hu Xuejun
From avoidance to admiration
"In the past, when people thought of heavy chemicals, their first associations were pollution and safety risks - they instinctively wanted to stay away. Now, young people willingly come close, take photos, and share images of refinery towers at night. That makes us deeply proud," Zhang Da, deputy general manager of NZRCC, told the Global Times.
Zhang emphasized that the facility's newfound "cyberpunk appeal" is not a gimmick created by lighting. Tens of thousands of tourists have now visited the outer perimeter of the plant. "Visitors can intuitively experience fresh air, a tidy environment and steadily operating production equipment. These unalterable real feelings are the core reason why industrial scenery has become a new urban landmark," he said. Modern industry, once distant to the public, has become visible, tangible and approachable.
A similar shift in public perception is taking place at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port. Netizens have spontaneously explored popular hiking trails on the mountains near the port. From elevated viewpoints, visitors can watch intelligent unmanned cranes operating with precise accuracy, alongside giant wind turbines spinning in the wind. Heavy industrial facilities blend seamlessly with lush mountains and clear waters, creating a perfect balance of motion and tranquility.
Chen Jia, a local resident, often comes to the coastline to overlook the port in his spare time and brings friends, including foreign visitors, to experience the scenery. "The efficient unmanned terminals, magnificent giant ships and harbor, and refreshing mountain-sea views have broken the cold stereotype of traditional industry. This is a unique romance made in China," he said.
    Foreign visitors take a group photo at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port. Photo: Courtesy of Ningbo-Zhoushan PortFrom photo shooting to industrial understanding
What gives these industrial landscapes their staying power is not the rush of a thousand camera clicks, but their genuine industrial strength and the invitation they extend to the public: to look beyond the spectacle and start asking how it all works.
"Industrial sites can become scenic spots through long-term safety and environmental governance, as well as sophisticated modern industrial management," Zhang noted. "Young people's interest in industrial landscapes is a great starting point. More importantly, we attempt to turn this temporary online attention into long-term public recognition, letting real industrial sites serve as a window for the public to learn about modern industrial systems."
NZRCC first made this understanding tangible in an unexpected place: a 15,000-square-meter woodland at the heart of the complex, where egrets have made their home. When pipeline plans originally called for cutting through the area, the company rerouted them to protect the birds' habitat. During breeding seasons, all nearby construction is suspended.
Today, the "Egret Garden" is equipped with a 24-hour livestream that has attracted over 200 million views online.
Beyond ecological progress, the company strives to translate obscure industrial jargon into everyday language for the public.
Through open houses and social media outreach, the public has come to learn that this forest of steel towers has developed key materials for artificial lung technology, produced separator films for new-energy vehicle batteries, and turned waste cooking oil into sustainable aviation fuel that now powers commercial flights. 
What began as a casual appreciation of a nighttime spectacle has gradually deepened into a genuine understanding that this once-distant industry underpins much of daily life, from transportation and housing to health care and the transition to cleaner energy, making China's new quality productive forces more tangible and understandable, Zhang said.
Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has likewise carved out a path toward meaningful public engagement. It has hosted a wide range of public exchanges and educational programs while carefully designing popular science exhibition halls and outdoor viewing sites to engage visitors.
"Since its founding, a port has always been about openness and connection," Zhuge Xurong, director of the Cultural News Center at Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited, told the Global Times. That openness, he said, extends beyond shipping routes to the exchange of ideas and knowledge between the port and the public.
Such open industrial scenes have become common across Ningbo's industrial parks, with bilingual science popularization activities bringing modern factories closer to the public. Online content creators frequently visit these industrial bases, unveiling the mysteries of Chinese manufacturing to wider audiences.
The trend stretches nationwide: intelligent heavy trucks in Lingang new area of the Shanghai free trade zone, drone manufacturing bases in Shenzhen, rail-transport industrial parks in Chengdu. Meanwhile, older industrial sites are being transformed into cultural and creative parks, preserving their historical textures while injecting modern vitality.
From awe to intimacy, from distance to engagement - this distinctly Chinese brand of industrial romance is reaching more people, being better understood, and continuing to evolve. 
。    　　曾因准确预测2008年金融海啸而受到广泛关注的澳大利亚经济学家Steve Keen发出最新警报称，人工智能（AI）泡沫还有不到一年的时间就要破裂了。

B | 　　他在接受最新采访时表示，当前AI相关投资热潮正在把大量资金推向数据中心和算力基础设施，但相关收入能否覆盖成本仍存疑。他预计，真正能长期留下来的用户带来的收入，大约只有这些公司支出水平的五分之一。　　他警告称，“我认为人工智能泡沫的持续时间不到一年了。”　　“那些不活跃的用户正在消失，而来自真正用户的收入（或许能够长期维持）看起来只有这些公司目前成本水平的五分之一左右。

C | 所以我预计许多公司会因此遭受巨额亏损。”他补充道。

D | 　　2010年，《现实世界经济学评论》（Real-World Economics Review，简称 RWER）的读者投票选出哪位经济学家最早、最清晰地警告了即将到来的金融危机。Keen位居榜首，“末日博士”鲁比尼位居第二。

E | 　　并非2008年的重演　　不过，在Keen提出上述警告的同时，他也强调，他并不是在预测一次由银行业引发的系统性金融危机，这一点与2008年不同。他说：“我并不认为这次会像2007年那样出现债务危机，因为相对而言，信贷需求相当低。

F | ”　　据悉，Keen使用的数据仅涵盖到2025年第一季度，他估计新增借款所资助的支出占GDP的比例约为4%至6%。根据他的数据，这一比例曾在2006年第三季度达到15.4%的峰值。　　Keen指出，他关注的触发因素来自金融体系之外——实体供应中断对公司现金流的影响。　　“这并非像2007年那样的金融危机，而是偿还金融业债务的能力危机，因为生产体系已经遭到破坏，”他说道：“我们会看到一些原本完全有能力偿债的公司，突然发现自己拿不到生产所需的投入。”　　在他看来，接下来将出现一系列破产案例。

G | 　　数据中心沦为匹克球场？　　Keen将当前AI热潮类比为19世纪40年代的铁路泡沫，而不是2008年房地产泡沫。

H | 他说：“我认为，我们即将看到一个非常大的泡沫破裂，规模堪比19世纪的铁路泡沫，因为太多公司把大笔资金投向了数据中心和AI。”　　据彭博社汇编的数据显示，今年企业已为数据中心和其他人工智能投资借款超过4100亿美元。另据报道，数据中心运营商QTS Realty为一处与微软相关、位于佐治亚州的设施发行了39亿美元债券，收益率约为7.23%，而这类投资级债券的收益率甚至高于部分中等评级垃圾债。作为对比，美国政府10年期借贷成本约为4.7%。

I | 　　Keen认为，放贷方未来可能会后悔当初收取的利率太低。他说道：“很多数据中心会发现，7%的利率和你最终要承受的损失相比，简直太划算了。”　　他还指出，房地产泡沫从未面临过这样的问题：房子30年后依然能为人们提供住所，而GPU三年后就失去了竞争力。　　他解释说，“当你拥有数据中心时，三四年后，驱动数据中心的GPU就不再具有竞争力了，所以你不得不再次投资。如果你在续约阶段没有获得足够的收益来弥补这笔投资，那么你就不会续约。

J | ”　　这让他对这些建筑本身产生了不太好的看法，并补充道：“所以我认为，把这些数据中心改建成匹克球场，是一个相当合理的设想。

K | ”　　不过目前来看，市场反应与此相反。彭博数据显示，继6月和7月创下历史新高之后，8月份投资级债券发行量再次刷新月度纪录，需求与供应保持同步。买家持续涌入。　　Keen的回答是，市场参与者往往会一直追随热情，直到热情突然消退。“起初，人们仍会被这种狂热裹挟。”当被问及为何专业放贷人总是在这类周期中后知后觉时，他直言：“他们不理解这个周期。

L | ”（文章来源：财联社）。

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